Contradictions... or not?

This week's AI Signal Newsletter uncovers what seems to be a contradiction for SMBs using AI

There appears to be a contradiction running through this week's news, and it is worth addressing it head-on.

Several stories this week make a compelling, numbers-backed case that AI is already delivering real financial returns for small businesses. One study puts the revenue gap between AI-adopting and non-adopting SMBs at $400,000 per year. Another study from a major bank shows adoption accelerating. The tools are getting cheaper, more integrated, and more accessible by the week.

But read a little further, and a different picture emerges. The same week, a Mercer survey of 825 executives found that more than half cannot yet tell whether their AI investments are delivering the returns they expected. The MIT research this newsletter has cited before puts the share of AI projects showing measurable financial impact at around 5%. And a JPMorgan analysis published this week found that, despite the market excitement, actual daily AI use has barely moved in the past year.

But it’s possible for both things to be true at once. AI is producing measurable results — for the businesses that identify specific use cases, implement deliberately, and measure honestly. For everyone else, it is producing subscriptions, experiments, and a lot of busy work that looks like progress.

The distinction matters because this week's news includes a new Microsoft bundle, a new Anthropic plugin, a free PayPal training course, and a wave of new tools all competing for your attention and your budget. None of that is bad. But the question worth asking before you act on any of it is the same one it has always been: what specific problem am I solving, and how will I know whether I've solved it?

That question separates the businesses in the top 5% from the ones still waiting for the return.

Download a PDF version of this week's newsletter here:

AI Signal Newsletter_Week Ending May 29, 2026.pdf

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